Learning to Thrive on Change
By Bryan Kaus
By Bryan Kaus
There is no certainty but uncertainty - and for that, we must condition ourselves to be ready to adapt. The world of 2025 presents leaders with a sobering reality: uncertainty is not an occasional visitor – it’s a permanent resident. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological disruption (AI advances, anyone?), executives must accept that they will never have perfect information or a stable environment for long. As discussed earlier, Mervyn King’s concept of “radical uncertainty” holds true – many future events can’t be predicted by statistical models or historical data. There is no spreadsheet formula that could have reliably forecast the COVID-19 pandemic’s timing, or the exact impacts of a sudden tariff war on multiple industries. In such a world, the old approach of making a single, static five-year plan and executing it come hell or high water is dangerously obsolete. Instead, leaders need strategic agility: the ability to rapidly adjust plans, innovate on the fly, and pivot as needed while staying true to the company’s mission. Strategic agility is not ad-hoc chaos; it’s a disciplined approach to managing uncertainty. John Kay and Mervyn King suggest reframing how we make decisions – rather than pretending we can calculate exact probabilities for everything (a false comfort), we should embrace adaptable strategies that work across a range of plausible futures. This means using scenario planning, dynamic forecasting, and constant feedback loops to navigate, rather than a fixed map.
Scenario Thinking – Planning for Multiple Futures: One practical tool of agile strategists is scenario planning. Pioneered by firms like Shell in the 1970s, scenario planning involves envisioning a set of diverse future states (“best case,” “worst case,” “status quo,” etc.) and developing strategic responses for each. The point is not to predict which scenario will occur, but to prepare for several and recognize early signs of which way reality might be trending. For example, a manufacturer in 2025 might plan for: (A) a scenario where global trade frictions worsen and they need to regionalize supply chains, (B) a scenario where a green energy boom creates new markets, or (C) a scenario where a recession cuts demand 20%. By hashing out responses to each scenario (e.g. “If tariffs X, we move production to Vietnam; if recession Y, we shift focus to maintenance services”), the company becomes more ready to pivot quickly. When one of those futures (or some combination) starts to materialize, the organization isn’t scrambling from scratch – they have thought it through. This nimbleness is a competitive advantage. As an analogy, think of a soccer player anticipating a penalty kick: the goalie doesn’t know where the ball will go, but by studying the kicker’s habits and preparing for multiple angles, they improve their odds of making the save. Likewise, businesses that embrace uncertainty and plan around it rather than assuming it away respond faster when the unexpected strikes.
Crucially, scenario thinking should involve the front lines of the organization, not just the C-suite. Front-line employees often see changes in customer behavior or supply chain issues first, so creating feedback loops for their observations can feed into strategic adjustments. A retail chain, for instance, might hear from store managers that a new competitor’s outlet is drawing away shoppers – that intel, if quickly funneled to strategy teams, could prompt a swift local marketing push or pricing promo to respond. In agile organizations, information flows freely upward, and strategy is continually updated. Contrast this with rigid hierarchies where information gets stuck and plans are changed only annually, if at all – those organizations get blindsided.
Dynamic Planning and Iteration: Agile strategy means adopting a “planning while doing” mindset. Think of it like navigation: in olden days, a sailor plotted a course and hoped for calm seas, but in reality had to adjust sails constantly as winds changed. Similarly, modern leaders set a direction (vision and goals) but continually recalibrate tactics and sometimes even objectives based on new information. One framework for this is the quarterly or continuous strategic review. Instead of treating strategy as a static document, leading companies now revisit strategic assumptions regularly. They ask: What’s changed in our operating environment this quarter? Do our priorities still make sense? If a key competitor releases a groundbreaking product or a new regulation comes out, they don’t wait till next year’s planning cycle to react. They convene quickly to decide if course correction is needed. Agile planning also leverages data – real-time dashboards and leading indicators. For instance, if you’re in the software business, you might track weekly active users or customer feedback sentiment. If those take a sudden dip, investigate immediately and adjust your roadmap if needed, rather than realizing a year later that users disengaged. Embracing an iterative approach, akin to Agile methodology in software, can work for strategy as well: set a strategic hypothesis, execute in sprints, get market feedback, and refine.
Lessons from Agile Companies: We can see strategic agility in action with some of today’s most successful companies. Traditional automakers, tied to long validation cycles and reluctant to deviate from approved suppliers, were caught flat-footed.
Alphabet/Google offer a lens on strategic agility. As the parent of Google, YouTube, Android, and a host of “Other Bets,” Alphabet has institutionalized a sort of portfolio approach to strategy. The company simultaneously explores multiple future directions – from self-driving cars (Waymo) to life sciences (Verily) to quantum computing – accepting that not all will pan out. This is scenario thinking at scale: Google essentially says, “We don’t know which technologies will dominate a decade from now, so we’ll actively develop several that could be big. The ones that show promise, we’ll double down; the ones that don’t, we’ll wind down.” Indeed, Google is known for killing projects that aren’t working (the infamous “Google Graveyard” of canceled projects) – which, while sometimes criticized, is a sign of agility. They set a high bar (market fit, growth) and if it isn’t met, resources are reallocated to new ideas. Few companies have the resources of Alphabet, but the principle applies broadly: be willing to experiment, and equally willing to pull the plug or pivot based on results. This rapid trial, learn, and adjust cycle is the essence of agility. It’s what allowed Google to quickly respond to the rise of mobile computing by developing Android (after initially being slow on mobile, they pivoted and ended up dominating mobile OS market share). It’s also seen in how they are now responding to AI competitors – when OpenAI’s ChatGPT burst onto the scene, Google leadership reportedly issued a “code red,” reassessing their AI strategy and accelerating projects. Within months, they began rolling out generative AI features in their products. That speed of strategic shift – mobilizing thousands of engineers to pivot focus – is only possible if a company’s culture and structure support agility.
Empowering People and Decentralizing: A common thread in agile organizations is decentralized decision-making. Rigid chains of command slow everything down. This has been something I have championed throughout my career as necessary to thrive in fast-paced environments.To be adaptable, companies must push autonomy to teams. Amazon, for example, famously uses the “two-pizza team” concept – small, cross-functional teams that own a service or product and can deploy changes independently. This decentralization means when a new trend or customer need emerges, the team closest to it can act immediately, without waiting for permission through ten layers. It’s strategic agility through structural design. Leaders of agile firms invest heavily in aligning teams on vision and principles, precisely so that those teams can be trusted to make decisions aligned with the strategy on the fly. It’s like having numerous field commanders who understand the general’s intent – they don’t need to call HQ for every move, they know the mission and can exploit opportunities as they see them. In volatile times, this can be the difference between capitalizing on a shift or missing it.
Embracing Change as Opportunity: Finally, a mindset point: agile strategists see change not just as a risk but as an opportunity. Volatility can be your friend if you adapt faster than others. For instance, when the COVID pandemic upended consumer behavior, some retailers floundered, but others, like those who quickly scaled up e-commerce, gained market share that persists today. The difference was an opportunistic mindset: instead of freezing in fear, agile leaders ask “Where is the new opportunity in this change?”. Often, uncertainty creates gaps in the market or weaknesses in competitors that a flexible strategy can exploit. This positive, proactive attitude must be cultivated. Celebrate team wins when they execute a successful pivot. Highlight case studies of your company adapting well in the past. This builds confidence and a culture that isn’t paralyzed by the unknown. As famed Intel CEO Andy Grove put it, “Bad companies are destroyed by crisis. Good companies survive them. Great companies are improved by them.” Strategic agility is what allows a crisis to improve a company – it’s the ability to learn and emerge stronger.
In conclusion, building strategic agility is now a core mandate for leadership. By using scenario planning, fostering rapid feedback loops from the ground, iterating plans, empowering decentralized action, and maintaining an opportunistic mindset, organizations can navigate uncertainty not with fear, but with skill. The next crisis or disruption will inevitably come – those who have built agility into their DNA will not only cope but potentially vault ahead. In our final essay, we will bring together these themes of productivity, culture, and agility, and discuss how principled leadership ties them all together for sustainable performance.